Washington Thinktanker's Win-Place-Show Prediction On the Money
On Thursday, January 27 I posted this study by Gregory Hooker of The Washington Institute for Near East Policy predicting the outcome of the Iraq election:
Shiite Unified Iraqi Alliance list – 43.8% = 120 national assembly seats.
The Kurdish list – a surprising 36.4% (more than twice their 16-18% proportion of the general population) = 100 seats.
The Iraqi National Accord [party of interim leader Iyad Allawi] – 8.1% = 22 seats. (A formula is being actively sought to retain him as premier even if his showing is low.)
The Iraqi Communist party (the best organized) – 1.6% = 5 seats.
All the Assyrian, Turkomen and Yazdi minorities together – 4 seats.
All others – 5 seats.
Tonight NBC News reported that, halfway through the counting, the Shiite Unified Alliance has 60%, The Kurdish List 25%, and The Iraqi National Accord Party of Iyad Allawi, 15%. Kudos to Hooker for an amazing job predicting this outcome so accurately (especially the strong Kurdish showing) in such a turbulent region.
Shiite Unified Iraqi Alliance list – 43.8% = 120 national assembly seats.
The Kurdish list – a surprising 36.4% (more than twice their 16-18% proportion of the general population) = 100 seats.
The Iraqi National Accord [party of interim leader Iyad Allawi] – 8.1% = 22 seats. (A formula is being actively sought to retain him as premier even if his showing is low.)
The Iraqi Communist party (the best organized) – 1.6% = 5 seats.
All the Assyrian, Turkomen and Yazdi minorities together – 4 seats.
All others – 5 seats.
Tonight NBC News reported that, halfway through the counting, the Shiite Unified Alliance has 60%, The Kurdish List 25%, and The Iraqi National Accord Party of Iyad Allawi, 15%. Kudos to Hooker for an amazing job predicting this outcome so accurately (especially the strong Kurdish showing) in such a turbulent region.
posted by Bluto at 7:28 PM
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