Sunday, January 08, 2006

AP-Ipsos Poll On Warrantless Intercepts Used Biased Sample

The AP-Ipsos Poll making the mainstream media rounds claims that a majority of Americans want the administration to obtain warrants for all "eavesdropping":
WASHINGTON - A majority of Americans want the Bush administration to get court approval before eavesdropping on people inside the United States, even if those calls might involve suspected terrorists, an AP-Ipsos poll shows.
The AP report on the poll acknowledges that results tended to fall along party lines:
Party affiliation is a factor, too. Almost three-fourths of Democrats and one-third of Republicans want to require court warrants.
Then why did the pollsters load the survey with voters registered to the Democratic Party? That's not mentioned in the AP story; you have to visit the Ipsos website and download an Adobe Acrobat file to see just who was questioned [emphasis added]:
REGISTERED
VOTERS
Strongly Republican .......................... 13
Moderately Republican ..................... 27
Definitely Independent/neither........... 8
Moderately Democrat........................ 32
Strongly Democrat ............................ 20
Refused/not sure............................. -
Total Republican ............................ 40
Total Democrat ............................... 52
In 2004, according to Pew Research, Democratic voters had gained a small advantage over Republicans; 33% to 29%.

So why did AP-Ipsos choose to magnify that split by 300% in their poll? Three guesses, and the first two don't count.

Also posted at The Jawa Report.